Re: UFC 76
Mikey,
Your points are very good, and i don't dispute them. Shogun has a god-like resume. Forrest does not. Let me see if I can just be more eloquent in my reasoning than I was before.
Pride vs. UFC guys seems to be very high variance in particular. The 'favorite', be it a big fav or a small fav, has lost a lot. Quenton was not expected to win, Big Nog nearly got KTFO'd, CC is down and out, Gomi vs. Diaz, etc etc. Whenever a guy switches orgs, i believe the variance increases, and I think bridge jumping lines become more inappropriate.
It's just harder than normal to reference skill set vs. skill set with limited common opponent, and different rules/environments.
Secondly, shogun is a banger. He's a terrific banger, as evidenced by his record, but this style still seems to me to be very high variance compared to other styles. When you move forward and throw with abandon, you can always get caught.
Also, Forrest seems to love this type of fight. Forrest can be caught, as his Jardine loss shows, but fundamentally, he loves to brawl. Shogun may be better at it, but he's not putting Forrest out of his comfort zone. CroCop was thought of as a better striker than Kongo, but the fight was dangerous because he wasn't putting Kongo out of his comfort zone, so Kongo had a real chance, more than what the bookies gave him. I think the same thing is true with forrest. He'll be fine in a brawl, and although he might lose he has a definite shot. I call this maybe a 70/30 fight.
So anyways the following things
High variance of two 'brawlers' fighting
+
High variance when switching orgs.
+
Shogun not putting Forrest out of his comfort zone
make me believe this line should be closer than it is.
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