[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed)
Hand History Converter Tool from
FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)
SB ($32)
BB ($34.60)
UTG ($66.15)
Hero ($24.90)
CO ($15)
Button ($31.95)
Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.35.
<font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, CO (poster) calls $1, <font color="#666666">
3 folds</font>.
Flop: ($2.95) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, CO calls $2.
Turn: ($6.95) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $11.65</font>, Hero calls ??
what is the range of my villain?
45/18/0.93 180hands
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Heres my take on the analysis of this hand, something which im working on.
I may be wrong, so dont take it for gospel.
So his range is wide on the flop, we can bet for value/take pot down. +EV bet.
[/b]Turn analysis:[/b]
Now here its probably wise to do two things, first give him a VERY TIGHT RANGE followed by a more optimistic/wider range.
Tight range:
Flush (9s8s will do for pokerstove, a flush is a flush and we have no redraw anyway so its fine)
Sets(QQ/TT/22)
2pair but ONLY WITH REDRAW TO FLUSH, Qs or Ts).
Poker stove raw range: QQ,TT,22,9s8s,QcTs,QdTs,QhTs,QsTc,QsTd,QsTh
Equity here: 7%
Wider Range
Same as tight range but we add others now.
2pair without redraws(QTo),
TPTK+Redraw,
TPTK+no redraw
Stove range: QQ,TT,22,AQs,AQo,QTo
Equity here: 37% (<2:1 required).
Now if we interpolate this range of %7 to 37% and look at our pot odds.
$7 pot + $4 bet + $12 shove =$23 vs $8 to call. 3:1 pot odds.
Optimistic range, easy call.
Tight range, Easy fold.
However the wider range isnt very wide, due to the line he took i feel he has FD alot more than say KQ here hence i discounted KQ to add more weight to flush.
So i dont mind a fold or call in this spot due to odds, however you will see a flush alot. Will it be more that 3 out of 4 times?