Re: UFC 76
If you think -400 is fair for shogun, you are freaking nuts...
How many times has a great striker or dominant guy been KO'd or beaten decisively by an 'inferior' opponent this year?
I believe the variance in these fights is much higher than any of us suspect, to be quite honest. I'd be all over forrest if he was above +300 the same way i was all over Kongo.
Especially with the way both forrest and shogun tend to fight, this could turn into a simple brawl/slugfest standing, and brawls are unpredictable. It's not like shogun cleanly picks people apart, he rushes in and loves to bang and brawl... It's a high variance method to use especially with another guy who loves to clinch/brawl.
Yeah... keep in mind that favorites are not always as huge as you think. MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better.
|