[NajdorfDefense]

copied from other thread, ND's def has done a really admirable job given the situations they've been in versus two ranked teams, 1 on the road in front of 110k fans.

1) Again, I don't understand the refusal to adjust for a first-time starting QB in this analysis. If you think he will play as good as Henne, just say so [ anyone.] If not, pls comment on the effect that will have against a decent defense. The fact that none of the Mich/Over fans will do so is really making me wonder, now.

2) In the first 53 mins, ND's Def gave up 17 pts to PSU. In PSUs first 8 drives, they started at ND 27, PSU 49, 37, 37, etc and got 1 TD.

3) In the first 47 mins, ND's Def gave up 1 TD to GaTech, even with 2 fumbles, 5 punts, and 2 Kickoffs, and 3 drives that started on with GT already in ND territory. Bears mentioning.

4) Mich scored a whopping 7 pts on Oregon at home. No FGs. 4 turnovers. 13 posessions and 1 scoring drive on a Def that gave up 27 pts and *545* yards of offense at home the prior week. Oregon does not remotely have PSU's Def. Houston got 6.4ypc on the ground, Mich got a whopping 3.3, or 50% worse. At home. With Mike Hart.
Houston also outpassed Mich, no surprise there I guess.

More importantly, if this is such a great bet without Henne, why the line move from 10 to 7?

The total I'm not certain of anything except someone will score, guaranteed, even if it's just a pick6 or punt return. {guarantee includes Overtime[s]}

Marcos, your analysis may be right, but you are clearly biased. I hate both teams so have no bias, I actually hate ND the most, fwiw.