Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux: Week 1
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I was on Jax too but still turned out a profit for the week cos I decided to middle Bengals game.
I sat calculating the EV for my options and was a bit surprised to see the middle was best, (I might have used too rough numbers).
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this is my first season on the Wong teasers(read the book in the spring) and I sat there last night thinking I should middle this game(Cin -2.5 was at my book) and couldn't rememeber reading anything about it so I passed. After reading this I'm glad that I won but pissed I missed out on a really good night.
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Don't look at it like that. You didn't have a "middle" opportunity, you had a hedge opportunity, and Homer said something about those once, but I can't for the life of me remember what is what as he was very long-winded and vague about it.
Anyways, if Cin -2.5 looked like a good bet to you, you should have bet it on it's own merits, but the tease shouldn't factor at all.
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I agree, with one exception. If you are incorrectly bankrolled then it might be better to hedge. I realize most of the sharps here will stay out of these situations, but I (not a sharp) managed to "short-stack" myself this weekend.
Basically, prior to Sunday I bet 7% of my BR on the DET+BAL teaser b/c I thought it was going to be the only one (and I was admittedly over-excited about my first ever Wong weekend). Then Sunday right before the 1:00 kickoffs I saw the CAR and JAX wong lines and felt like I had to make the same size bets.
Needless to say I underestimated the variance caused by losing 1 game and the potential catastrophe of losing 2 of 4. I still didn't hedge the game, but I'm not sure I shouldn't have. I did buy 3 Cinci contracts at $66 right before the 3rd & goal that ended up getting intercepted, but at that point it was an additional bet rather than a hedge.
It all worked out, but I definitely learned my lesson.
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