Re: 10NL KK turn
I'm trying to think what hands smooth call pre-flop and then check/call the flop.
The only hands I can see him calling with pre-flop are medium and small pairs, for their set value. I can't see him calling pre-flop with SCs because most of the time if he catches anything it will just be a small piece of the flop, and then he'll be drawing from OOP. And that sucks.
He might do it with AK, but I think even a bad player would 3-bet with AK and try to take the pot down pre-flop. And wouldn't most players, even bad ones, 3-bet with JJ+? After all, again, he'll be OOP. Wouldn't he want the initiative? Wouldn't he want to find out if his QQ/JJ is beat early, while the bets are still cheap?
I suppose AA might smoothcall OOP preflop...
Given that pre-flop range, the only hands that check/call the flop are AA, KK, 22, 99 & JJ. Maybe QQ & AK. That's not a lot of hands you're ahead of unless this is some kind of float with air by BB. 30 hands beat you, 22 don't. ~42% pot equity.
TJC makes a valid point, though. After your turn bet and BB's check-raise there's ~$13.00 in the pot, $6.00 for you to call and you've only got $6.25 left.
Like Matt & Sonny say in PNL, after 1/3 of your stack has gone in the pot, it is usually wrong to fold. 2:1 pot odds and you're roughly 3:2. Shove that last quarter and see.
|