[goofyballer]

Ok, putting him squarely on a set:

$143 in pot, $45 to call, shove costs $187.75

Shove flop: He calls every time w/ KK, our equity is 41.21%

EV = -187.75 + .4121 * (143 + 187.75 * 2)
= -187.75 + .4121 * 518.5
= +$25.92

Call flop:

7/45 cards pair the board on turn, so:
15.56% of the time, we fold turn (EV: 0)
8 clubs and 6 non-club A's and 9's make our hand, so:
31.11% (14/45) of the time, we get it in with 77.27% equity:
EV = -142.75 + .7727 * (233 + 142.75 * 2) = $257.89 * .3111 = $80.23
On the remaining 24 turn cards, we have to call a shove with 29.55% equity:
EV = -142.75 + .2955 * (233 + 142.75 * 2) = $10.47 * 24/45 = $5.58

SUM: $85.81 on turn - $45 from flop call = $40.81



So, it looks like calling flop and playing more correctly on the turn is better. The problem is that this assumes he really does have a set every time; if he had AA or AK, then folding turn on a paired board would be a huge mistake and definitely affect the above calculations.

EDIT: Actually, our equity vs AA/AK isn't that much better UI on turn than it is vs KK, so even if we're missing out on some EV by incorrectly folding on paired turn cards, it's not by much, and there's no way it's enough to make the $40.8 figure drop below the $25.9 figure (it would change the $0 turn EV 15.56% of the time into, like, $6 EV 16% of the time, which makes a difference of about 93 cents). So, the results unless I screwed something up:

Calling flop and playing pokar on turn >>>>>>>>>>> shove flop, to the tune of $15.