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Old 09-10-2007, 05:20 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 15,430
Default Re: $750K M=4 UTG+1 FTA K9o

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You could listen to betgo. He knows what he's talkin about. Or, you could make multiple threads and not listen to any of the advice. And, you could keep making -EV preflop plays. Your choice.

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I don't want to get in the way of the regulars all quoting each other but... is it actually a -EV play? betgo suggesting it's an OK play with 7BB and not with 9BB makes it seem close enough that this is probably +chip EV. I seem to remember a Sklansky thread from back in the day that advocated moving all-in with QJ UTG and 10BBs. It had math that I am too lazy to find and do dumb to redo. Not sure why this case would be much different.

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I think this push is cEV-, but close. Here there is about 2.5xBB in blinds and antes. In Sklansky's example, it is a live tournament with about 3xBB blinds and antes and tighter play.

If you have 7xBB, your EV is much better, whether you steal or are called, so even though you have less FE, the push is much more profitable.

My style is not to take marginal gambles short stacked and wait for really good ones. I don't think it is terrible to push here if you want to gamble. Your M is 3.6 and you have a reasonable good hand, so pushing can't be more than slightly cEV-.
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