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Old 09-10-2007, 07:09 AM
ebalf ebalf is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Germany
Posts: 30
Default Re: NFD+Gutshot too aggro ?

Your RRAI won't push him off the hand since he's got only a small amount to call.
So basically it's about showdown percentages.
His reraise tells me he's got a made hand or a very strong draw.
Since you got the NFD the best draw he might have is sth like J9s/98s/87s.
Not very likely that he pushes with those hands.
More likely: two pair or a set. Since he called a 4BB-bet a pocket pair and thus a set is more likely than KTs/K6s/T6s.
So basically you'll very often see a set.

What are your chances to beat a set?
9 outs for a flush and 3 outs for the straight (J spades only once).
12 outs. rule of 4 --> 48 outs.
discount his outs for a paired board.

Call/RRAI is good.
Fold would have been bad IMHO.

I would have called. If he doesn't bet the turn you save 18.90 if you don't hit your straight/flush.
Don't think he'd lay down his set after a spade comes.
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