[ensign_lee]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers M/L (+240)
2 units at Skybook?

When I first saw the line open up at -6, I was really surprised. I definitely expected this line to be at -9.5 to -10.5. Fact is, that there are about 4 bets on Seattle for every 1 bet on Tampa. But the line has gone from -6 to -5.5. Wha???

I think that this reverse line move is very telling. Whenever a bet seems so incredibly easy to make that it’s stupid, it’s rarely that easy. I’m confident enough to put two units on Tampa’s moneyline.

I will be playing this later today to try to get the moneyline at maximum value, but will be at the Houston Texans game, so won’t be able to relay the odds until I get back later. My advice is to wait and try to get the best line you can; you know that money will be pouring in on the Seahawks later today.

New York Jets M/L (+229.32)
2 units at matchbook

The Patriots are a good team. There’s no doubt about that. And I do think that they got better this offseason. But do I think all that is enough to warrant them being -6.5 to -6 point favorites AT New York? Accounting for home field advantage and what not, that means that if this game were to be played at New England, the spread would be -12 to -13? Against a team that went to the playoffs last year and didn’t lose any of its core players?

This line is off; this moneyline is off. The Jets are not going to lose this game at home more than twice in every 3 tries. I think that this moneyline presents a good +EV bet.

All ESPN has been doing this season is hyping up the Patriots, all but declaring them unstoppable. If it were up to ESPN, we wouldn’t even play the season. The Patriots would go 19-0 and win the superbowl. Period. End of story.

I don’t buy it. But lots of other people have. The line opened up at -6.5 and has now dropped to -6. And yet there are 2 to 3 bets on New England for every bet on New York.

Even after the suspensions of key players on the Patriots, the line doesn’t move as much as it should. What the hell?

This is enough for me to put two units on this game in favor of the Jets.

Cleveland Browns M/L (+194.04)
2 unit at matchbook

This is another line that I saw and immediately when “wah?” This line should be closer to -6.5 to -7. And even if the oddsmakers didn’t start it off there, it should there now. Damn, sportsinsights is showing 9 bets on Pittsburgh for every one on Cleveland. Wagerline is showing a 3:1 ratio. But the line isn’t moving…at all.

Honestly, this bet makes no sense to me, but then again, some of my best bets never do. Yay blindly fading the public when line moves (or absence of line moves) make no sense.

Buffalo Bills M/L (+155)
2 units at BetTrojan

Buffalo isn’t as bad as ESPN makes them out to be. Denver isn’t as good as ESPN makes them out to be. Couple that with the fact that the Broncos historically don’t do well as an opening day favorite, and that I don’t really have as much faith in Cutler as everyone else seems to and you find my Buffalo M/L bet.

Then you have the fact that there are 2 to 3 bets on Denver for every one on Buffalo. The line is currently at Denver -3. TheGreek, one of the books that sets opening lines, opened this at -3.5. Pinnacle opened it at -3, but then shifted it to -3.5 and then finally back to -3. Huh.

Washington Redskins -3 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

This is a play fading Miami more than it is for the Redskins. I don’t think that the Dolphins are going to do well at all this year. I was going to leave this game well enough alone, but then the Pinny lean was on it for the last day or so, so here I am. Go Redskins?