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Old 09-08-2007, 09:35 PM
RustyBrooks RustyBrooks is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 1,380
Default Re: sick 3 hands in a row

Hero has a board lock on Seat 4 on 6th.

Also, in order for the other guys to have better hands, because of their cards, they'd have to have 75's or better.
* The guy showing A45 would need to have 73, 72, 63 or 62 in the hole
* The guy showing A35 would have to have 74, 72, 64 or 62 in the hole
account for are: 2 sevens, 1 six, 2 fours, 2 threes, 2 twos. This cuts down the number of possible hands that are currently beating him considerably. It also probably means that his opponents need to draw one of these cards and so they have far fewer outs than usual.

Hero is a huge money favorite on 5th. He's putting in 1/4 of the money but will probably win the pot more than 50% of the time. I haven't done the numbers on 6th but since only one player improved I expect he still has nice equity. The bad news: he will lose almost 50% of the time. But this is OK: when you lose, you lose your part of the pot (less than 1/4) and when you win you win the whole thing, and since you win more than half the time, you make lotso money. It is important to remember, if possible (for tilt control reasons perhaps) that there are a lot of situations in poker where you will lose and/or feel fooling the majority of the time, but still make money in the process. It seems like doing the right thing needs to work "most of the time" but that just isn't true (dang ole pot odds again)

I don't blame you for your call on the end, but I do want to point out two things:
* There is almost no side pot so Seat 4 is probably not going to bluff into 3 players, one of whom can't fold and whos' showing a pretty nice board.
* What is Seat 7 calling with? Calling after another player requires you to be a little more sure of your hand in general, especially since there is a player all in. Still I think you just have to close your eyes and click call here.

Next time river a 3.
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