Re: BB Defense Range Based on Limits (or Villian Attempt to Steal %)
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I'm not sure what you mean by profitable. The idea is to minimize the loss you take from posting a blind.
example:
opponent raises top 10% of hands (ATo+,KJo+,KJs+,ATs+,AA-99) against this range a hand like j8 or 75 will have about 30% equity.
hot cold sim:
EV folding = -0.5BB
EV calling = 0.28*1.25 - 0.72*1 = -0.37BB
So if you had only 1 sb left in your bb after posting the blind you would make a 0.13BB mistake by folding compared to calling. (note that I didn't account for rake in the example,adding rake 5% should make it about -0.39)
In the book stox makes a few assumptions that really aren't that applicable to lower limits.
1 they assume that people raising or stealing are doing so with their top % hands (anyone who has played a bit at the lower limits knows that when someone with vpip42 and pfr 10 raises his hand might as easily be Q5o as JJ)
2 they assume that your opponents are very strong players and will punish you severly when you are behind (due to better position)
3 when an opponent plays poorly they tell you to ease up on your range, however note that playing poorly is quite different at lower limits than at the higher. A 25\15 tag at high limits that are weak tight postflop is a poor player in this example.
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Defend the BB with J8o agasint ATo+,KJo+,KJs+,ATs+,AA-99 is a mistake imo. It seems we have the odds to peel but this a reverse implied situation, because you often have to fold on the flop and you can't spike a pair on the turn or on the river.
If you spike a pair on the flop, you can't know if utg has better pair. You can't avoid to do mistakes in this situation, so it is better fold.
35% equity against the villians range is a good baseline. But you have to be tighter if there is some risk of domination. With a rake of 5%, we have to choose a threshold of 36% imo. The implied odds of the hand is impotant too, but i don't know how to measure them.
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