Re: NL 50 folding 444 on river
If you don't think you have the best hand 20.4% of the time it's a good fold...but you do have the best hand at least that often.
Don't minraise the flop, wtf. You have a bettor and a caller, surely one has a draw. Make him pay for it on the flop and the turn. Gotta set up a bigger turn bets for value and to make people make bigger mistakes by chasing their draws. FWIW I bet $12.50 on the turn, at least.
Finally, let's say he does have a flush most of the time. Even if you call $12 on the river he's still not making up the money he lost by calling getting ~2.5:1 on the turn. So you should be calling here because you will have the best hand >20% and you're still not making his play a +ev play.
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