Re: 200 NL, top pair in a limped pot against moron.
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I think one street is not necessarily enough information given OP's read. It could easily be a big stab with worse than Kx if he fires once, then checks behind on the turn. After all, if he was bluffing or firing with a weak Kx, then he'd be worried about OP having a 5. So, I don't think c/f the flop is terrible, but c/c the flop with a plan to c/c the turn and then c/c the river would be.
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My point was if he bets $20 again on the turn only if he's bluffing but more like $40 if he has a hand. And then he bets $20 again on the river with nothing, but shoves if he has a hand. This would be an excellent spot. If he bets $20 no matter what, I don't know. If he always 3 barrels when you check to him, then he'll be bluffing much more than 50% of the time.
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I'm not so sure. This assumes that he gives hero absolutely no credit for a hand when he c/c's the flop. What would hero c/c the flop with? 5x and Kx. That's it. So how much fold equity does villain have? Some vs K-weak-x. But not much otherwise. I think villain may be bad, but he can't be so bad as to say to himself, "This pretty solid regular just c/c'ed an overbet on the flop from the blinds on a K55 flop. He MUST have a weak hand that I can push him off with 2 more barrels..." That doesn't make sense, even for a moron. I don't think villain fires again on the turn without at least Kx. Maybe if he's bad he fires with K3s or something, but I doubt he fires with air given that OPs c/c screams "I got a piece, buddy, so kepp firing..."
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