Re: Top two pair spot
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Thanks for the analysis. Strange that it looks like my equity went up after the turn card.
I know there is no way I could have known the other hands exactly, but if I had, should I have even been betting the flop? I probably had more than 20% equity on the flop including the two who folded, but after only 2 others called, I lost money on that bet. Checking and calling seems wrong as well though.
It is bizarre to me that the AK33 had an equity edge on the flop, as I actually thought he made a bad call. Just an inside straight draw, backdoor flush draw, and backdoor second nut low draw? I don't see how that adds up to 41% equity...
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The most misunderstood concept in omaha eight or better is hand equities. They're extremely close preflop and can change drastically with the turn of a card, specifically THE turn card. That's why I always harp on people that the turn is where you make your decision. It is THE critical street.
Oh, and btw, for those of you who wonder about how drastic equities can change- you can flop top set on a rainbow board with two high cards and your opponent can become a favorite on the turn without any pair or any draw on the flop. You can go from 3-1 fave to underdog with one card, and still be up against a hand with no low no pair. I could give a bunch of other examples, but the point is, hands are often very close in equity preflop, but they can change drastically, especially on the turn, and most people (including myself initially) are shocked when they find out a hand they thought was a big underdog was actually a slight favorite in certain situations.
Just to beat the horse some more, if omaha eight or better hands are very close in value preflop, the value you get from a preflop raise goes down in contrast to other forms of poker, and your postflop play is much more important than your preflop play- and I promise you that if you could play the turn perfect it wouldn't matter what else you did in a typical eight or better game. Think about how often you call the turn, and how often you call the river incorrectly based on false odds. Meh, i'm off on a rant.
-Tex
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