Re: How is this calculated?
You left out the heart flush, runner Aces, runner queens, 88's redraws or 88's lack of any redraws when Th9h makes a str8 flush, etc.
The 4X rule is off by at least 5% at the level of 14 outs. Also, the 4X rule is intended for 47 unseen cards rather than 41. The fact you got 44% is a funny coincidence.
I'm sure your suggestion, "That's how he got 44," would make his eyes roll.
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