[Tweety]

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projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.

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Nope, prorated 80% would be $600. If it was 50% then it would be neutral EV. Both players would have an equal chance at winning the $1000. He'll win $1000 two out of ten and he'll lose $1000 8 out of ten for an average of $6000/10=$600 prorated.

I put $500 because I think he has a slightly less chance than 80%, something like 75%.

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sorry, you are right. i was thinking ahead, and the losing side would certainly pay a premium in this case. so $600+premium ~ $800?

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That's up to them to figure out. If the guy will go str8 up probability he should try to get it.

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He offered me $550. I thought it was an OK offer, but I am likely going to pass.

Basically, I've mentally prepared myself for the loss. I can suck it up and take a loss. What will really hurt is handing him $550 and then having the bet go the other way.

Basically, at this point, I really don't want to risk $1,550 to make $450, which is essentially what I'd be doing.