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Old 09-07-2007, 02:27 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 3,633
Default Re: Top two pair spot

Chillrob - I think you played perfectly.

If we give LP A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],

if we give MP A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],

and you have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],

then I think maybe everybody played correctly. (I ran simulations with these hands before the flop, after the flop, and after the turn. If I had switched the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], then LP would have more pre-flop equity.

I have these three hands alone <ul type="square">LP 25.08%
MP 40.03%, and
Hero 34.89% before the flop.

LP 28.53%
MP 40.82%, and
Hero 30.65% after the flop

LP 21.72%
MP 40.32%, and
Hero 34.96% after the turn.[/list]Because of the dead money in the pot from the first betting round, I think after the flop everybody needs at least 25% equity,
and after the turn everybody needs at least 20% equity.

And everybody has that.

Interesting that the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hand has a slight equity edge all the way.

I probably should have included two blank hands, but no matter at this point. Well... pretty easy to do. O.K.

<ul type="square">Blank 1 15.40%
Blank 2 15.69%
LP 15.56%
MP 30.36%, and
Hero 22.99% before the flop.[/list]maybe the hand that I assigned to LP was a bit light before the flop for this particular set of three hands that saw the flop. Hard to make that judgment, change the cards a bit and maybe it wouldn't work out that way.

At any rate, looks like you played just fine except for not having much luck with the river. I like your fold to the bet and raise on the river.

Buzz
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