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Old 09-07-2007, 02:24 PM
zer0 zer0 is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: massachusetts
Posts: 973
Default Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*

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also calling ellsbury "a guy who put up a .738 ops in AAA this year" is kind of intellectually dishonest because theres no reason to ignore a quarter of his season which is equivalent to like a 1150 AAA ops. also guys like ellsbury that just put the ball in play every plate appearance dont lose as much when they jump up a level

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ok, well we're talking about a guy with 2 hr's and a .424 slg % (including his .600+ in AA) in the minors this year having a 30 at bat hot streak and replacing 2 proven veterans or a likely gold glove cf'er. i dont think i'm being "intellectually dishonest".

ellsbury will not lose most of his centerfield value, you are correct. problem is, his value is his speed and outfield defense, which would be lost as a corner outfielder in boston. his .335 minor league BABIP is much closer to what i'd expect in a full season compared to his current .424 BABIP (and, i'd expect his 2% k rate to climb closer to its normal level, while we're at it)

ellsbury is not an elite hitting prospect. theres nothing wrong with that, but when people are talking about putting him in a corner outfield spot, they do it with the expectation that he'd outperform jd drew's line this year, which would probably be his ceiling next year.
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