View Single Post
  #13  
Old 09-07-2007, 01:47 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Macro Miserable
Posts: 5,368
Default Re: Maybe easy, but not in the heat of battle

[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't he have air or a pp here enough to get a bet or raise in on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

But, how often are the following true, which are really the conditions needed to bet:

1. Villain has a hand we beat.
2. Villain would check behind the river if we checked.
3. Villain would call a bet if we donked (or, more aggressively, call a raise if we check-raised or three-bet).

I doubt these conditions are as likely as villain simply having us beat, which leads me to not want to do anything more than call down.

The fact is the texture of the hand is so transparent that basically we are never going to win more than 2-3 bets from hands that we beat, we are going to chop almost all the time, and lose some of the time. There is not much value to be manufactured here, as our hand is effectively face up. So don't risk unnecessary chips in a spot where we really can't fold and are compromised by our position.
Reply With Quote