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Old 09-07-2007, 12:20 PM
RustyBrooks RustyBrooks is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
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Default Re: Razz - terrible call on 5th...or is it?

Whoops, I did the odds wrong, right, putting into 12 to win 35 is 3:1. But that's actually not quite right because that's just the effective odds to *see* 7th so you need to compare 3:1 vs the odds of drawing a hand you'll want to call or bet 7th with.

Assuming you're calling 7th then now we're talking 41:18 which is 2.2:1

Also given the out cards in the full hand it's a bit closer to 4:1 against the caller.

Honestly I think effective odds might not be that, ahem, effective of a way to consider a hand like this on 5th. I might instead use immediate odds and figure out a) how many times I'll be required to fold 6th and b) the times that I don't fold 5th, what my equity will be at that point.

Anyway in a rough sense it seems like the odds are "only" 3:1 against because of the times that:
* hero catches low and villain catches bad: hero is now a small favorite. This happens a lot because most cards under 9 are good for hero (almost half the deck) and T,J,K,Q,A,4,3,6 are bad for villain (again about half the deck). So about 1/4 times hero pulls ahead.
* If both hero and villain brick, then hero still wins nearly 1/4 of the time (this happens about 1/4 of the time).

So 1/4 of the time, equity is 50% on 6th (hero catches, villain bricks)
1/4 of the time, equity is 25% on 6th (hero bricks, villain bricks)
1/4 of the time, equity is 0% on 6th (hero bricks, villain catches)
1/4 of the time, this is more complicated because it depends on how well each catch. Equity will range from 0 to 25%. Let's cheat and call it 12.5%

So the average here is... 29% equity on 6th. I fudged the math kind of a lot though.
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