Re: A-Rod total home runs bet
do you use his home run rate this year or his career home run rate?
the true answer lies somewhere in between. i know if i'm projecting a-rod's HR rate next year, it's going to be considerably lower than his 2007 figure.
honestly, this is too complex of an analysis for one bet, unless the $1000 is really important to you (in which case you shouldn't be betting that much). if i had to, i'd estimate the probability using a binomial distribution with a HR rate 40% of the way between a-rod's projected and actual 2007 figures, and assuming he plays maybe 85-90% of the remaining games. once you crunch that, you have the fair value of your bet.
if you expect to be making similar bets in the future, feel free to expand on this, but i doubt it will come up.
|