Re: A-Rod total home runs
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projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.
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Nope, prorated 80% would be $600. If it was 50% then it would be neutral EV. Both players would have an equal chance at winning the $1000. He'll win $1000 two out of ten and he'll lose $1000 8 out of ten for an average of $6000/10=$600 prorated.
I put $500 because I think he has a slightly less chance than 80%, something like 75%.
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sorry, you are right. i was thinking ahead, and the losing side would certainly pay a premium in this case. so $600+premium ~ $800?
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