Re: Daliman WONG Teaser FAQ
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Look at it this way. Would you rather tease lines for the whole season now or the day before the game?
Letting the line sharpen itself is fine in almost all circumstances. Wong teasers are meant to beat very sharp lines.
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It's very important the last sentence there. You can/should let the lines sharpen virtually all the time. A simple thought experiment proves this.
Let's say the opening line on GB is +5, but should only be +2. The value is obviously to bet GB outright at +5, teasing them is -EV compared to ATS wager.
Everyone agree?
Now, let's assume that Vegas has set all 16 NFL games perfectly. The 7 pt faves will win by 6-7. The 3-pt by 3-4. The 14 points by 13-15.
Here, teases would win 100% of the time. [continue to assume we are focused on across 3 and 7.]
The more inaccurate the line, the more likely the biggest value is in the ATS line by definition. The sharper it is, the more valuable the 6 points of the tease is.
Look at it the other way, if Det is +2.5 but should be
+5 [and NFL lines will move towards accuracy during the week + add'tl info], why would you want them, even teased, at +2.5?
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