Re: SIA NFL Props
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I am now officially a donk as well. I would bet the ones in bold:
+1400 Any NFL Rusher over 250 yards. I know this has happened at least twice in the last 7 seasons (lewis and dillon, maybe more people).
+400 Any kicker 60 yards or higher made field goal
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really rough calc on the one we differed on, going only since 1990.
17 seasons * 256 games/season = 4352 games
3 ties
P(tie in a given season) = 1 - (4349/4352)^256 = 16.1%
makes true line about +521
+1700 is way off from that...what am i missing?
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