View Single Post
  #4  
Old 09-06-2007, 10:24 AM
Nick C Nick C is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 10,145
Default Re: A8o in the BB: Figuring out this Commitment Threshold/Planning thing

For whatever this may be worth, if we turn this around and place the last player to act in the position, with a flush draw, of facing a $100 bet and a fold on the turn, then he'd be making a pretty optimistic call, since he can't really rely on perfect implied odds, and he very nearly needs those. (Plus, we know, and he may not, that the 8s is not an out for him.)

Of course, that doesn't mean that someone with a flush draw will actually fold to the turn bet. But he probably should, unless he now has a straight draw to go with his flush draw.

Anyway, I think you're mostly hoping someone has a worse two pair (like 87, A7 or A3) or a big ace he decides is worth taking to showdown for your stack (with the chances of a big ace being somewhat diminished by the preflop action). I don't think you're getting heavy action too often on this board, and if you do, I'm not ecstatic about it (sandbagged sets are a concern), although I agree that you should be willing to commit yourself on that turn card.

Er, anyway, I think that if you're called on the turn, a spade river does put you in a tough spot, and I'm not sure what's best.

Checking with the plan of making a decision might be an option.
Reply With Quote