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Old 09-06-2007, 07:49 AM
JavaNut JavaNut is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Permanent downswing
Posts: 471
Default Re: A8o in the BB: Figuring out this Commitment Threshold/Planning thing

They do mention in the book, that a bad river or even turn card can make you uncommit, but they do not dig into the subject, can't wait for vol 2.

The example Niediam gives is very good, at the turn you have two pair, which most likely is good so you plan to be commited unless a 7 shows up on the river.

The whole concept of planning to commit or not has been created to avoid putting money into the pot without a good plan. Your flop bet is good as it has a very good chance to win you the pot and if not, you have not put yourself into a tough spot. Once the favourable turn comes you have to make the decision then on whether to commit or not. And as a part of the decision, you decide for a plan to get your stack into the pot. In that plan you also decide how may scary cards there could come on the river if you decide to need to bring your stack to the middle in more than one action.

Say you have Q2o on a QJ6 flop with 2 spades and a non spade 2 comes on the turn, and you figure you are ahead, but any spade or A, K, J, T, 9, or 6 is a scare card for you, just about 27 cards or more than 50% of the possible rivers leaves you with a tough spot, should you then plan to move your stack in in two actions on turn and river, where you risk both opponents call and getting an unfavourable river where you will have to c/f? Probably not, perhaps shoving at the turn is the best option, hoping for only one opponent to call, making you the favorite.
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