Re: UFC 75
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Vs Jardine, all I saw was a street brawler with good punching power. Any fighter who slips consequently making jardine think he's hurt and come in foolishly can land heavy shots to win. I guess you've pointed out that since i don' tknow enough about Alexander, maybe I shouldn't put any money on him or against him, but I thought .5u against @ +160 woulda been decent. Your inside knowledge owuld make things completely different so you can't fault our analyzing skills for something that's just not available to us.
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I'm not faulting you for anything [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
I'm just saying, people are making huge assumptions on Houston's abilities based on 48 seconds of fighting, in which Jardine throws one punch and Houston a bunch.
Labeling him a "street brawler" is a real stretch imo. You just don't have enough available information to make a determination on Houston except to say:
1) He can take a Keith Jardine punch to the chin
2) He is quick
3) He is powerful
4) He is aggressive
I just rewatched that fight, fresh, to be able to describe.
Houston comes out, tries a leg kick, Jardine steps inside and clips him with a left. Houston is on one leg when he gets hit, he gets knocked over -- maybe knocked down. Houston immediately gets up and puts Jardine in the clinch. He does NOT catch Jardine coming in -- Houston stands up, gets in the clinch, pushes Jardine against the cage. its a full five seconds before Houston throws his first punch after he gets Jardine in the clinch. Its definitely NOT something that happens because Jardine rushes in after he drops Houston.
I'm not saying Sakara may be a good bet based on your information. That's your call. But I'm just counciling that I think a vast majority of people, including a couple MMA sharps I know, are dramatically overestimating their ability to judge Houston based on 30 seconds of a fight.
I think there's sharp money moving on Sakara with people thinking his boxing background and experience give him a better edge than expected against what people see as an undisciplined street brawler. I agree with you, I think a lot of people are saying that Sakara has a great chance here and its driving some money on him.
I just think you've should consider that Houston has way more experience than most give him credit for (admittedly smaller stage, smaller fights, but its still experience), and is much more well rounded of a fighter than most give him credit for, especially those labeling him a street brawler or etc based on the beating he put on Jardine.
He's been training jits with NAGA hall-of-famer and the so-called "Guru of Grappling" Bob Schirmer and wrestling with a top Nebraska wrestling coach and several all-american NE wrestlers. He's got amazing conditioning, explosiveness, and power, and trains with Muay Thai champions including a former world champion and not one but two US champions.
Outside of the handicapping perspective, I'm curious to see where Houston goes from here. Assuming he does blow by Sakara like he's standing still, who at 205 do they put him in with? Might be an interesting matchup for someone with a ground game, to see him tested on the ground. Thiago Silva, maybe?
(edited after re-watching the fight)
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