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Old 09-05-2007, 05:37 PM
RustyBrooks RustyBrooks is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
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Default Re: The OTHER worst fold in Razz history

Well, I don't automatically give Seat 7 credit for a 6 there, or even a 7, given that he limped 3rd and called your completion. Really that's got to be read dependent though - a LOT of players, for whatever reason, limp all kinds of hands and have raising numbers as low as 2-5% on 3rd. Still, if he has a 3-card 5 on 3rd I expect he'd complete unless he was looking to trap. If he had a 3-card 7, he needed to have 753, 754 or 743 in order to have a 7 here. Anything else and he either has paired or has a made hand worse than a 7. Honestly I'd expect him to either have paired or have an 86 here.

If he has paired, a call is in order on 5th, I think that's clear.

If he has an 86, your outs are: 3 aces, 3 fours, 4 fives for a total of 10 outs. There are 38 unknown cards so your odds of drawing a 7 or better are 2.8:1 in one card, and your immediate odds are 4.2:1 so that implies a call is OK (if he has 86)

If he has a 7 you are drawing pretty slim since a 765 might not be good and even a 764 might not be good. If he has a 7 then 763 is good but that means you have somewhere between 3 and 10 outs, heavily weighted towards 3. Worse than 10:1 odds if you need the 763, something like 5:1 if 764

If he has a 6 you're screwed but that means he has to have exactly 34 35 or 45 in the hole.

Purely percentage wise he needs to have an 86 or worse the majority of the time to make a call good.
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