Re: 200-400 Ace to Cinco TD
I didn't work through the math in detail, but my intuition would be to agree with rchandra--- if you are getting the right odds to draw then you are probably better off patting. If you can't feel confident calling down then folding is preferable.
Let's see: you are beaten by 5432A, 6xxxx (5 hands), 7432A, tied with 7532A, but ahead of 7542A, 7543A, 75432. So even if you eliminate 76's, you are about 3.5/11 to be winning (2.1 to 1 odds). Drawing you are hoping to catch a 4 or a 6 (but sometimes the 6 is no good) so call it 4 or 5 live outs in 40 unknowns, odds of 9:1 or 8:1.
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