Ya got me...Holly Deezy in the digital flesh. Long-time lurker here, used to post more extensively on some other blackjack-specific boards, but too many flamers there even for this smack-talkin' bad boy! 2+2 may not have blackjack-heavy content but i appreciate the professional level of discourse & as i move more & more into the poker realm as well it seems like my energy would be better spent posting here instead...
Liberal use of surrender is a very good thought, but while one of the strengths of advanced tournament strategy is the creative use of surrenders & doubles (or the threat of surrenders/doubles), for this particular situation you would only be invoking the surrender option in situations where you couldn't duplicate the 'same result' as your opponent & needed some kind of escape hatch.
Since we're talking about betting from the lead, the option to invoke surrender is based on whether or not you still have a high available & how likely it is that you can create the same (or better) result as your opponent. Typically surrender is used when you end up having no high due to being too close in chips & having your opponent overbet you. This takes away any value you have in trying to win your hand, as now it only matters that your opponent LOSES. So surrendering back for the low buys the push, which itself can be an additional edge of more than 35% (in the case where dealer has a 10 and the other player has a 20, for instance; dealer will have a made 20 about 30% of the time and will HIT to 20 another over 5%)
So you see rather than surrendering back when your opponent has an 18 vs dealer 10 up, you are far more likely to do it when he has a made 20. Bottom line is, if you have no value left in keeping the high, then your only value in not surrendering back to beat a push comes in based on how likely you are to create the same win/win or lose/lose result as the other player.
if he's stood on 16 vs dealer 10 for instance, you're a lock or better with any hand, as you can hit to 12 or better and then stop. Worst case scenario, you both lose (with you retaining your chip lead) but best case, you turn your 5 into an 11 and then a 21, dealer flips a 20 and you get a positive swing in the process!
Rock on --
-hd.
badboy of blackjack online
www.HollywoodDave.com