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Old 09-04-2007, 12:52 AM
elindauer elindauer is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: analyzing hand ranges
Posts: 2,966
Default Re: Another hand I probably misplayed

Preflop is a clear fold for me. The only way this hand is playable is if you expect to have position and can keep the pot shorthanded. Frankly, if I had no read on the button, I'd probably STILL fold it, but I appreciate that if the limper is known to be bad then a good player can squeeze out some profit here by raising. Moving on.

Flop donk is really weird. You are benefitting the pfr to your own detriment. I guess if the guys behind you are terrible and loose, it may not be bad though. If they were thinking at all your play would be terrible, as you do not want to get heads up with the best hand, you want to pump a big multiway pot. Yeah, the pot is kinda big right now, but it's hardly HUGE. I aim to win a big multiway pot by check-raising.

Turn bet is pretty doubtful. Very little fold equity, and worse you can get isolated with a raise from the pfr. Just check and call.

River is interesting. You're calling anyways, so does 1 more bet possibly push the pfr off a big hand? If he had KK or AA, he probably would have raised the turn, and if not, it means he believes you somewhat already. I'd say if he holds KK or AA, you definitely want to put in that 2nd bet (given that you can't go back and take back the 1st one). Your weirdplay of this hand has marked you with a possibly big made hand, and your lagtard BB opponent has given you the golden opportunity to use it to win a pot you perhaps should have lost. KQ is possible as well, as the two overcard + gutshot hand may play this way from start to finish and lay it down for 2 but not 1.

I think the river raise is pretty close, and certainly can't be a big mistake. Calling and going for the overcall from AJ KJ etc would be the less heart-stopping move of course.

good luck.
eric
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