Re: 50NL flop a set OOP vs TAG discuss how we extract the most...
I like donking rather strong - 3.75 to 4.
Two tone board, semi-coordinated board with 1 high card is the key here. If we donk and he has a good hand, he's most likely raising us -- great. We can push and he'll be pot committed with the top of his range because he doesn't know if we're overvaluing AQ, have a flush draw, or a set. He'll be right to call, too, against our range (which doesn't include AQ, but could be 76 as well I guess.) He'll be folding the hands like KQ, air, JJ, AQ probably -- but that's okay, he'd do that to a c/r and we'd have less money. We should be pushing our strong draws the same way for FE and balance.
If we c/r, he'll drop the Ax flush draw out of his consideration a bit. Sure, we might play that strong with it, but it's slightly less likely. c/r always looks stronger as far as a made hand. 76 looms less in his mind as well, as 76 is really vulnerable. So is a combo draw, where equity can really drop on the turn if he had checked behind. If he's thinking or not, anything where the equity can drop on the turn fearing a check behind is less likely -- so strong made hands go up in percentage and he can fold having less invested. If you c/r strong draws here (I don't) then I guess it would make sense to c/r.
We're trading the chance that he folds a weak hand to the donk bet that we might've gotten a cbet for the chance at his stack.
|