Re: WPEX Pai Gow poker +EV?
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Most likely not, but their hand setting algorithm is a little off:
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A little? Those are absurd. I would guess 5% easily. The only thing that would concern me is that you can't see the code, and don't know the level of oversight.
Consider scratch lottery tickets -- when printing, the computer first determines the outcome -- then prints a ticket to confirm the outcome. When the scratch "game" being played represents cards or dice -- the results are so skewed that randomness is beyond belief. Yet, I think the reason states keep modeling scratchers on casino games is because some people must believe the results are random.
If a Pai Gow Poker game was coded this way -- so that results are determined at random to conform with expectation, and then the display is programmed to confirm the results -- then the hands that were "misplayed" could simply represent a predetermined loss or push. Because the expectation is so close -- this approach would be a lot more subtle than in a lottery.
From the house perspective, this could be a very profitable way to present the game -- when there is a predetermined player "win", you could "occasionally" give the player a "winning" hand that includes a very subtle, non-intuitive "proper" play in order to collect the "win". You could also skip over a number of predetermined "pushes".
While I would believe the win/loss results are random, I wouldn't necessarily believe that I was "playing cards".
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