Re: tournaments won vs entered
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people automatically say that the odds of someone accomplishing this is 1 in 5929 (77 squared). but really the odds of someone accomplishing it is 1 in 77. the odds of Bill accomplishing it is 1 in 5929. there must be a winner the first year, so whoever wins will be 1 in 77 the next year.
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I get this. It's the same as the same idea as the odds of getting dealt AA twice in a row (1 in 221) as opposed to the odds of getting dealt AA the next two hands (221 squared or 1 in 4641). I was lucky enough to have this discussion earlier this year in a casino when one of my opponents said I'd just hit a 1 in 5000 shot. I disagreed. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
This would certainly tend to lower the odds of someone winning multiple bracelets if you attribute a win to random luck since the first would essentially be meaningless from an odds persepctive. But obviously the odds will still be pretty long for anyone winning more than 3 or 4 based purely on luck. In any case I hope you'll post whatever you figure out.
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