[Heisenb3rg]

I think this is a clear bet even if they call down very light.

The point isnt to fold out ace high its to fold out his missed draws. Ace high has an easy call here.. if hes calling the turn hes calling the river.

Your job is to asses what % of his range contains missed draws and see wheter its high enough to profitably bluff at the pot.

The focus should be on the agression of the player and how lightly they peel the flop.

Sometimes you can narrow agressive players distribution down pretty significantly when they just call, because they would have semibluffed a lot of their draws on the flop as well as raised their good hands..

Then again super calling stations have more ace high/low PP hands in their distribution.. But they are also much less likely to haev semi-bluffed their draws.

I think because he limped UTG, you can assume a player profile with somewhat passive play and put anything from KJ, to a gutshot that picked up a diamond draw, to a spade draw in his range, as well as eliminate any hand > TP.
Against this range you have an easy bet.