[ttgirl]

i thought villain called out of the blinds. that changes everything. i still lead 15 on the flop in the first case, but then reads come into effect. if hes not the kind of player who can make a top pair weak kicker type laydown to 3 barrels or if he likes to make hero calls im going to bet about 25-30 and then shutdown on the river if we dont improve. my logic behind this is hes going to talk himself into making a big call and we have the implied odds to make this an ev play if he doesnt fold. on the other hand, if the villain is the kind to make big laydowns then i probably fire about 35-40 on the turn, and make a fairly big river bet against him. in the second hand, i do the opposite and valuebet him twice if hell call down and only once if hes prone to make folds to 3barrels. someone mentioned check raising the turn on the second hand, but villain shouldnt be likely to bet the turn unless hes willing to get it all in since it seems like such a great spot to check raise a draw.

the reason i think you should have the same line for both is so that your oppononets are forced to play a guessing game against you and basically submit to game theory in order to make their decisions, since theres no way to distinguish when you're bluffing and when you're valuebetting. this will result in you getting paid in awkward spots that you shouldn't and be able to incorporate aejones' theory of range merging into your game by valuebetting top pair weak kicker when draws miss. if your opponents never call, then theyre making a mistake, but if they call too frequently they're also making a mistake. this way, they just have to randomly decide to call based on factors other than our line which puts them in alot of trouble.

some of this is convoluted and im still thinking about what lines id like to take, but id like to hear if you agree with any of this.