[ElectricWaffles]

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I am not sure wether or not I can c-bet that much against him. But: you are very right about his implied odds going down. Good point. Also, if we have a set, we want the money in, and that is easier if the pot is raised.


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My 2c. Again i'm playing devil's advocate here.

I'll simplify this by assuming he has two cards higher than you thus in a race you're about 50/50 to win. Am I right in assuming this also means he's going to make a hand on the flop about 25-30% of the time? (If not then my whole point goes to **** but i'll go on anyway...)

Lets say you raise it up PF then make a CBet (say a 50% pot sized bet so it's easier on my brain). You've now stuck in a 40c raise plus a 45c (40+40+10 / 2) CBet totalling nearly $1. Now 25% of the time he's got a good pair and he's going to call, now say another 15% of the time he's going to call and see if you fire a second barrel. That means 40% of the time you're stuck OOP with a puny pair of 3s against TAG whoose just called you on a board probably containing 3 overcards. Following up with a 2nd barrel is going to be hard in this situation without any more info.

So essentially 40% of the time, give or take based on my assumtions, you've lost a dollar. So that's -$0.4 for our total.

The other 60% of the time you win $1 so thats +$0.6, making a total of +$0.2

Now lets say you invest 5c and see a flop. I'm assuming BB checks it. 15% of the time you hit your set and i'm going to assume thats the best hand. I'm also assuming you're folding if you miss the set. So 85% of the time you loose 5c. Thats roughly -$0.04 for our total for this play.

Now lets say you check it and 66% of the time one of them makes a pot sized bet (thats 60c). You then check raise and they fold. That makes adds to our total $0.40 for this play. I'm also ignoring the times they call and you take an even larger pot down on the turn or they call and draw out on you, my poor brain couldn't take that amount of number crunching. Regardless I think the EV calculation there depends more on your ability to know when your set is second best.

Anyway... the total for the limping play is +$0.36. Thats more than the rasing play which gave +$0.2

Does that not also run with the intuative logic that you're raising up a pot where you're OOP with a weak hand thats probably not going to improve against a reasonably good TAG type player.

If my maths and assumtions are bad then feel free to show the correct solution, it's the first time I tried a calculation like that.