[ QUOTE ]
Villain runs like 31/12/1.7/2.6/3.2, no real history except he has seen me get my stack in preflop like 12 times with AK/KK against AA against 30/24 villians.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (
LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
SB: $906.30
BB: $192.50
Hero (UTG): $586.40
MP: $312.70
CO: $400.00
BTN: $753.60
Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $14.00</font>,
4 folds, BB calls $10.00
Flop: ($30) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $23.40</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $78.00</font>
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If you only have .15% hand equity if villain calls, then your push needs 26% fold equity to break even.
The more you think he folds, the more EV.
The wider his hand range for calling (giving you more hand equity when he calls), the more EV.
The reverse is also true. The less he folds, the more you lose.
And if his hand range is sufficiently narrower when calling to give you only 10% hand equity vs his range, then you need about 33% fold equity to break even.
========pct===equity===$win=====pct*equity*$win
fold====0.26====N/A ====140.4====36.504
call====0.74====0.15====240.9====26.7399
call====0.74====0.85===-100.5===-63.2145
sum of pct*equity*$win = EV= $0.0294
So, put him on a range of hands with which he'd check/raise. How much fold equity do you think you have vs that range? And are you 15%, 10%, better, or worse vs his calling range withing the group of hands with which he'd c/r?
I just don't know enough about this player or this level of 6-max play to give you a good range. My guess would be Qx, 88, 22, flush draws, particularly flush draws with a pair or an overcard (i.e. AXs or KXs), possibly a pair lower than Q that is testing your cb. If his range is that wide, then push is probably OK since many Qx hands will fold as will most of the flush draws, and your hand equity will be OK vs many of the flush draws that might call. On the other hand, if he only does this with Qx where x is a good or great kicker, sets, and AsKs/AsJs, so that you have very low fold equity, then maybe fold is best.