[Stumpy]

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Stumpy,

I'm too lazy/don't have time to go through your math, but I assume you fold to a river bet as well if you call flop and turn goes check-check?

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I would definitely bet the river if checked to twice.
I also claimed I'd bet the turn if he checked a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to me.
I don't entirely know what to do on the river. We only have to be ahead 25% of the time to call.

The numbers I gave were based on folding to a turn bet, and assuming we at least broke even on any river action. The math is mostly an attempt to look at a simple general result for a hand range and action. It's obviously only as good as the assumptions. I don't play enough to be very confident in my player generalizations. The obvious problem is some players do this with only AA, and others would with TT+,AK, and a rare few think this is a cool move. I've certainly seen people doing it with TT+,AK in $10 tournaments more than once.

I pretty much use myself (hopefully usually my earlier self) as the moron model.
Maybe everyone does, and we're just posting which way we'd have butchered this hand.
But based on that I tend to characterize unknowns as moderately aggressive by default.
I see a C-Bet as nearly automatic with his full range. Other people deeply disagree.

C-Betting here is pretty ugly when you really look at it, but it is very hard to not continue when you've finally gotten a hand like QQ or KK. Particularly when you look at it from the standpoint of the player who thinks QQ+ are such strong hands that you shold make this stupid PFRR to suck in your opponents.

Being as short as we are, he needs to keep betting with QQ-KK 50% of the time to make calling a turn bet good.
I'm really unsure if that's reasonable or not. I think it's close.

Again, using myself as the idiot, with the given 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn, I would now be inclined to call, because any pair with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is likely to try and push you out. We've got two big non spades, so more than half his range is spades.

If calling a turn bet is borderline, I'd say calling the river is less so.

I know none of that answers anything.