Re: The UTG huge overbet
This is what I posted in the thread about opening JJ/TT from UTG (where I recommend a huge overbet)
If we make a move that allows us to only be looked up by QQ+ AK, then it is highly +EV. Saying that it is "readable" is a problem suggests some misunderstanding. Our goal in poker is to maximize our expected return with each decision, not to be as confusing as possible to our opponents.
Playing a pair like TT,JJ from early position is difficult with this stack size, as we all seem to agree. The reason *why* is because no matter how we play it, it is THIN EV. If we limp and are called, we are not getting great odds to pop a set, and we are OOP with hands that dont like flops. If we limp and are shoved on we may have enticed the shove and need to call, and we might be crushed but need to call, and we might be crushed and need to fold, it depends on *WHO* shoves over us, so that decision will be hard, and thinly EV in either direction.
Many people have a problem pushing 20BB. I actually chronically play SS with 20BB and you can just take me on face value, open pushing 20BB is perfectly acceptable and profitable.
If your main concern is the mix of hands to properly push from UTG at this stack size, I would highly encourage AKo.
WTF? Is this moron actually suggesting we open push one of our best hands at 20BB from UTG? Can't we get more profit from AKo other ways??!!!?? NO, not really. Having AKo in our open push range allows for some of the mid pairs in our range to be a blended mix. Now when AQ calls us behind thinking we have guaranteed TT/JJ isnt he surprised. Any pocket pair that calls us thinking we pushed a low pocket is only getting a 50/50 and theres enough blind overlay for it to be profitable. (and if its lower than JJ- then we just showed that JJ can open push and be called by a worse pair for an 80/20) The main problem with TT,JJ,AKo here with this stack size is all the same. These hands have incredible value from our position. They serve to be the best hand at showdown. They WANT to see all 5 cards. But our position and stack size does not allow us to play good poker post flop with them. Stick it in. (Or dont, and just play way better poker than your opponents, with a thin stack, the worst position, and hands that often have to be folded even tho you are currently ahead... Your choice!) Just examine our play with any of the hands on a sample flop of Q87 rainbow. We are almost always ahead in equity with any of the three hands against many types of ranges that might flat call a small raise from us, yet, we are almost obligated to check fold or bet fold, and throw our equity in the muck.
4Card
- For the purposes of this thread I thought I would re-iterate my thoughts. Personally, at slightly smaller stacks 12-15BB I would like to see 99-JJ, AJs/AQs pushed, and would only 3x raise AK,QQ+ to hopefully encourage action, or possibly the reverse.
One very important note. UTG play is difficult because we are out of position. How to MAXIMIZE our EV from UTG with a good hand depends far more on TABLE dynamics than any current trend in the industry. Some tables have people that seem to refuse to allow limpers, and some people will reshove KQ for instance over a limper, at these types of tables limping our very good hands (although modest given our position, like TT-QQ/AKo) can be a very good move to entice a slightly worse hand to push over. Other players will only raise where there is action in front of them, even limps, with hands like QQ+, and will just limp along with AKo or JJ, if so, limping and being able to fold to their push can often be the best maximizing play. As a general rule, I personally despise limping from UTG, and very unique conditions must be present before we would choose to limp yet call a shove.
with 12-15BB tho, the table sees you are about to pay a BB and might think an open push is a sign of weakness, so to mix up play open pushing QQ-AA instead of limping or min-raising seems to me to be acceptable, but the most important concern in my book is the TABLE. As it often is when we act from UTG.
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