Re: Tricky exiting unraised hand...
Why not check-call the river? It seems weak but I think it's best.
After he raises the flop I would suspect he's either drawing or has 97 (and possibly a set). Sometimes he has air or a gutshot.
However, once he calls your turn lead you can eliminate air and gutshots. I'm pretty sure he's raising sets on this turn so I would eliminate those.
So, on the river he has 97, busted flush draws, busted straight draws, and T8.
If we check, I believe 97 will bet nearly 100% of the time. T8 will also bet. Plus, maybe he bluffs at some of his busted draws.
If we bet he will call with 97, so we don't gain any value most of the time from this hand by betting since he will bet it if we check. Also, if we bet he will fold busted draws and hands like 86. But, he will raise T8.
So, I think check-calling is the correct play on this river, even though it feels weak.
EDIT: I should also add A9/A7 to his range that could raise the flop then call a turn lead. Against this hand a check-call is certainly optimal.
|