Re: I hate these spots so much
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... with a hand like 99+, AQ/AK I would push PF. This hand is more about the times we don't have those hands though.
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These hands do well both against Villain's opening AND calling range, so these are no-brainer shoves. A2o is in a different class: it's about 27% vs. anything that's currenlty ahead (including AK and TT). It's basically a math question here, but you need to evaluate what % of the time he folds to a shove preflop to find out if it's worth it. If it isn't worth it to shove, then fold because it definitely isn't a good spot to call.
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My problem is that in my mind, a lot of these situations end up as:
He raises PF. He c-bets. Then he shuts down on the turn, because he was trying to steal the whole time, and missed, at which point virutally any bet is going to take down the pot, regardless of what I have.
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It doesn't matter -- your hands are tied by your stack size. I mean, you're calling preflop expecting to call another bet on the flop -- at that point half of your stack is in the pot -- it sucks when he bets the turn because you're getting 2 to 1 but are often way behind, and even if he checks you're committing the rest of his stack to bluff him off his hand. If you were 100BB deep or something it could be okay to take this line, but your stack size doesn't allow it.
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I'm basically hoping for that to happen here, that and I figure I have 5 outs. villian's bet sizes look so much like that's what's gonna happen here (he's basically overbetting twice). He just *looks* like he's trying to buy the pot. However, I feel like I'm falling into a trap thinking that way.
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I personally think that you are. FWIW, when people overbet in blind situations, especially TAGs vs. other big stacks deep in a tournament, it often seems to me to be a hand that they think is best and don't want to get drawn out on -- he could have over cards I guess, but I think it's sort of unlikely here.
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