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Old 08-24-2007, 02:17 PM
jbrennen jbrennen is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 148
Default Re: How often do you fold flopped top set in Tournament? It\'s killing

IMO, you're basically set-mining with this hand, but with the added restriction that you would really prefer to have at most one low card on the board, which will happen a little more than 60% of the time that you hit your set. Odds of hitting the set are a little over 12%. So about 7.5% of getting a board with a King and no good low draw.

So you need about 12-to-1 odds to draw for a good flop. You're not getting those odds on either preflop call, although it's close on the second one. So you're depending on implied pot odds, that you'll extract extra money postflop if you make your target flop. That's a stretch of course -- unless somebody makes an underset you may not get that postflop action.

Considering that you're only calling off 100 preflop from a 6000+ chip stack, it's understandable to call preflop -- it seems cheap. But then you flop the nuts and you're committed to taking a ride on the variance roller coaster. I don't think you can get away from this hand postflop, and that's part of why people are suggesting not to play it preflop -- you got enough of the flop to commit you, but not enough that you like what's happening.
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