Re: bad luck downswings don\'t exist?
<< i see your point aaron and agree, but i still think that people just incorrectly attribute their downswings to variance. >>
That's certainly true. While long downswings are possible by bad luck, they're much easier to create with bad play, or even just high variance play.
It's a highly unrealistic assumption that you have a constant win rate and standard deviation over 100,000 hands. Any significant downswing should lead to a rigorous assessment of your play.
The reason to emphasize the chance long downswings is so people accept the need for large bankrolls (or small stakes) and careful management, even if they are very good players.
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