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Old 08-23-2007, 03:56 PM
MadMike MadMike is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 321
Default Re: NL25: fold bottom set?

BB thinks he's got the best hand on the turn- this is not a bluff. That's about all we can conclude from his 3-bet and his stats.

So what could he have where you beat him but he could still think he's ahead of your range? The key would be to know what he thinks your turn raise means. If you've been playing LAG here and doing a lot of semibluff raising then you want to be AI here. If not... then I think this is a lot closer than some are giving credit for if BB is even close to being solid.

At NL25 I still call because villians usually think one street at a time only and he could put you on a range that includeds medium-strong aces for TP, random 2 pairs, 34, as well as sets. Against this range he'd be putting you on, any two pair is probably a favorite and the meat of his range- meaning you are the favorite to get AI.

But if he is thinking and knows you don't suck, then your range is pretty narrow here and would be 22, 34s, A2s because you are not going have 2pair with 85,82,or 52. And you're not going to slowplay the flop 4-way with 2 diamonds with A5s,A8s, 55, or 88. So against that range, what range would the BB have that he thinks he's a favorite against you- but you still beat? Not much.... if you assume he'd not slowplay 2-pair or a set with two diamonds on the flop then the only hands that makes sense would be A2, 82, 52, 43. And if he had your range as 22,34,A2s then he's not going nuts with 82, 52, or A2.

Of course this is a 25NL- so just push since he could have pretty much any 2-pair hand since no one at 25NL really thinks the way I outlined above at the table.
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