Re: Sit \'n Go Strategy study group -- Part I: Low Blind Play
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It's just basic SNG math rather than poker gut instinct.
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It's also opponent dependent. I play pretty low stakes and some players will regularly call down with an underpair to every single card on the flop or any A high - others will play fit or fold and never ever check-raise - others will c/r with any PP and sometimes any A high. You do need to know who you're up against. If I think it has a low chance of working I don't c-bet, I take a free card. Is that so wrong?
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That's not wrong at all. I just want to point out that what you're doing is using your poker instinct/skills to estimate probabilities, and the rest is just simple math. There's a very important step in between the poker guesswork and the final push/fold/bet/raise/call/whatever action that's effectively unique to SNGs.
To be clear, I'm not necessarily recommending a continuation bet in the second hand. I'm just pointing out reasons why it's much more likely to be the proper play in hand 2 as compared to hand 1.
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