View Single Post
  #2  
Old 08-23-2007, 12:37 PM
mykey1961 mykey1961 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 249
Default Re: Call losing bets?

Your numbers are comparing apples and oranges.

The "standard" way of calculating is to assume folding at that point is 0 EV. (4/46*580)-80 = -29.56.

It costs you $80 to have a 4/46 shot at a $580 pot.

Another way of looking at it is to figure how much you have invested in the pot so far, and how much you could ultimately pull out of the pot.

Lets assume you've invested $150 into the $420 pot.

If you fold now, you net -$150 for the hand.

If you choose to call. 10.5 times you will lose $230 (10.5*-230=-2415), and 1 time you will win a pot worth $580 for a net win of $350.

(-2415+350)/11.5 = -179.56

So your choice is Fold and lose on average $150 per hand
or call and lose on average $179.56 per hand.
Reply With Quote