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Old 08-23-2007, 11:39 AM
Tater10 Tater10 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: 42.3827 -87.94149
Posts: 247
Default Call losing bets?

Ever have brain farts? I'm having one now.

Suppose you are on a gutshot draw to the nuts after the turn card comes. This is the only way you win.

Pot is $420

4 cards help out of 46 = 1 in 11.5, or 10.5 to 1 to hit

Your opponent bets all in $80 - giving you odds of 500:80 or 6.25:1.

Do you call?

If you fold, you give up 4/46*500 = $43.48 in equity
If you call $80, you give up 42/46*$80 = $73.04, but now have the right to 4/46*500 or $43.48, so you only lose ($73.04-$43.48)=$29.56?

In other words, it's a losing situation, but you will lose less by calling?

What am I missing?
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