bad luck downswings don\'t exist?
using excel, i entered 200 cells of =NORMINV(RAND(),3,30)
i believe that generates a random distribution of numbers which would imitate that of a player who's winrate is 3bb/100 and has a variance of 30bb/100. i'm not sure if that variance is accurate for a typical player, its what i remember mine to be.
200 cells means 20,000 hands. the average winrate after that many hands is 600bb. here's a list of trials of actual wins:
648
1659
1357
730
1117
1000
707
-394
1421
494
356
371
826
919
1393
523
209
767
717
240
that's ONE losing streak after 20,000 hands out of 20. how can people say that good players still have 100k hand breakeven stretches?
so is this experiment not accurate for some reason? or are all downswings a result of bad play moreso than bad luck?
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